Venue: CENAIM, San Pedro de Manglaralto, Ecuador

Time:    Monday morning, 15 October 2018

 

This half-day meeting, held the day before the IV ENSO Conference in Guayaquil, aims to:

 

1) Make progress on community ENSO Metrics, a key ENSO RF activity

2) Discuss the latest ENSO research (ENSO in a changing climate, quantification and reduction of remaining uncertainties, ENSO complexity research, ENSO extremes,…) 

3) Discuss the future of the ENSO RF (upcoming initiative on TPDV/EDV interaction, potential merge with PRP, etc.)

4) Enhance coordination among researchers in the field, with other CLIVAR working groups, with TPOS2020, and with the IPCC. Review upcoming ENSO-related workshops and meetings.

5) Identify and facilitate future opportunities for research on ENSO.

6) Foster the next generation of researchers in the field. Discuss the next ENSO summer school.

 

Participants will discuss new observations, simulations, theoretical developments, analytical tools, and collaborations that are advancing understanding, reconstructions, and projections of ENSO.  A key focus will be on metrics to evaluate comprehensive simulations of ENSO and its response to climate change, and on emergent physical constraints that leverage inter-model diversity to yield more reliable projections of the future. We will discuss ongoing progress in integrating improved end-user oriented ENSO metrics into existing diagnostic frameworks (e.g.  ESMValTool, CVDP, PMP, MDTF, Curator), so that they become more widely available to the research community and easily maintained.

 

We will also discuss current engagement with other international efforts, including: (a) TPOS2020 to enhance future climate observations; (b) CMIP6 to coordinate ENSO-relevant analyses of simulations and projections; and (c) the IPCC to enhance the scientific basis for ENSO in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and SROCC special report (WG1/2).  We will discuss how to better align future resources with scientific priorities, and scientific priorities with societal needs.  We will discuss plans for a summer school on ENSO in a Changing Climate, targeted for summer 2020.  We will also discuss the future of the ENSO RF, which will have achieved 3 years of existence in late 2018, including a potential merge within the Pacific Regional Panel.