Outline of review (cited in programs below)

1. Introduction
2. Characteristics of EDV and TPDV/model assessment
3. Mechanisms responsible for TPDV
    a.  Internal mechanisms
    b.  External mechanisms
4. Predictability and predictions/hindcasts/projections of TPDV
5. Conclusions
6. Recommendations on the way forward

All days begin at 9:00 am and end at 17:30 pm.

DRAFT PROGRAM (download the agenda) 

Colours used in program:
Plenary sessions
Scientific talks in plenary
Breakout sessions
Special events (icebreaker and dinners)

April 1 CLA meeting

Progress to date, review draft – including figures, identify issues to resolve, review draft program for Days 2-5.

Pre-meeting, Monday April 1

Required: CLAs only. Any other LAs in town are welcome to attend – pls let us know.

• Present overview of each draft section
• Identify key issues that need resolution
• Discuss figures and what needs to be done to finalise review
• Finalise agenda for Days 2-5
• Prepare for Day 2

9.00-9.10 Welcome, local arrangements, safety briefing, etc. (Eric, Jerome, Yann, Mat L)
9.10-9.20 Welcome, purpose and expected outcomes from today’s meeting and meeting on Tues-Fri (Scott, Antonietta, Mat L)

Short overview of sections 1-6 by CLA/s:

• Overview of Draft Sections
• Outstanding issues
• Draft Figure/s in section
• What needs to be done to complete section?
• Discussion

9.20-9.40 Section 1
9.40-10.30 Section 2

Morning tea 10.30-11.00

11.00-12.00 Section 3a
12.00-1.00 Section 3b

Lunch 1-2.30

2.30-3.20 Section 4
3.20-3.30 Sections 5 and 6 – arrangements to elicit this information (Scott)

Afternoon Tea 3.30-4.00

4.00-4.30 Discussion: Cross-cutting issues
4.30-5.30 Finalise program and arrangements
7.00-9.00 Informal Dinner

April 2-5

Day 1, Tuesday April 2

9.00-9.10 Welcome, local arrangements, safety briefing (Eric, Jerome, Yann, Mat L).
9.10-9.30 Welcome, purpose of meeting, programs, our respective duties, expected outputs, (Scott, Antonietta, Matt L), Q&A and discussion

Scientific or technical talks on issues directly relevant to review (in plenary)

9.30-9.50 Doug Smith: Decadal prediction of tropical Pacific climate
9.50-10.10 Mat Collins: CMIP5 simulation of IPO and AMV, and links to global mean temperature
10.10-10.30 Jing-Jia Luo: The importance of South Pacific to the decadal ENSO-like variability
10.30-10.45 Discussion

10.45-11.00 Introduction to breakouts

Identify what needs to be done and begin work to finalise sections e.g.:

•  list of what issues need to be resolved and what needs to be done to complete your section
• Identify any additional analysis needed
• Explicitly consider figure/s
• One breakout each for:

• characterisation and model assessment (Section 2),
• internal mechanisms (Section 3a)
• external mechanisms, including impact of external forcing on internal variability (section 3b)
• prediction, projection, predictability (Section 4)

• address outstanding issues, revise text and figure,

Morning Tea 11-11.30

11.30-1.00 Breakouts

1-2.30 Lunch

2.30-3.30 Breakouts

Afternoon Tea 3.30-4.00

4.00-5.00 Breakouts
5.00-5.30 Plenary discussion if needed

5.30 close

7.00-9.00 icebreaker

Day 2, Wednesday April 3

9.00-9.10 Brief plenary discussion if needed
9.10-9.30 Yuko Okumura: decadal variability in the frequency and duration of El Nino and La Nina events and the linkage to Pacific decadal variability
9.30-9.50 Jong Seong-Kug: Tropical Decadal variability associated with ENSO nonlinear rectification
9.50-10.00 Discussion

Short overview of sections 1-4:

• CLA/s: Overview of Draft Sections
• Outstanding issues
• Draft Figure/s in section
• What needs to be done to complete section?
• Discussion

Section 1: 10.00-10.30

Morning tea 10.30-11.00

Section 2: 11.00-12.00
Section 3a: 12.00-1.00

Lunch 1-2.30

Section 3b: 2.30-3.30

Afternoon Tea 3.30-4.00

Section 4: 4.00-5.00
Cross cutting issues 5.00-5.30
Close 5.30

7.00-10.00 Dinner

Day 3, Thursday April 4

9.00-9.05 Local arrangements/Aims and program for Day 3
9.05-9.50 Cross-cutting issues (cont., if needed)
9.50-10.30 Up to two key relevant scientific talks directly if needed

Morning tea 10.30-11.00

11.00-11.40 Up to two key relevant scientific talks if needed (breakouts otherwise)
11.40-1.00 Breakouts

Lunch 1-2.30

2.30-3.30 Breakouts

Afternoon Tea 3.30-4.00

4.00-5.00 Breakouts– please compile lists of:
• main conclusions
• the way ahead 
for your section.
5.00-5.30 Plenary discussion/short presentations if required

5.30 Close

Day 4, Friday April 5 

9.00-9.30 Plenary Discussion/short presentations on issues arising if required
9.30-10.30 Breakouts
Quick summary of each section’s highlights, including figure/s, new features, any next steps – including discussion
10.30-11.00 Section 1

Morning tea 11.00-11.30

11.30-12.30 Section 2 – quick summary
12.30-1.00 Section 3a – quick summary

Lunch 1.00-2.30

2.30-3.00 Section 3b – quick summary
3.00-3.30 Section 4 – quick summary

Afternoon Tea 3.30-4.00

4.00-4.30 Section 5 – quick summary
4.30-4.45 Section 6 – quick summary
4.45-5.15 Discussion
5.15-5.30 Next steps, time lines, action items and closing comments

5.30 close

List of Participants: